Sahel
Russia Builds Sahel Air Bridge
Russia's Africa Corps has built a hybrid air logistics network moving weapons, ammunition, personnel and equipment to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, according to a report published August 12 by the Center for Advanced Defense Studies. Flight-tracking data from January 2025 to July 2026 identified at least 75 flights by Russian military and military-linked aircraft touching the three countries, with Burkina Faso receiving the most (56), followed by Mali (38) and Niger (6). The network blends civilian operators, including Aviacon Zitotrans and Abakan Air, with state units such as the Ministry of Defense's 223rd and 224th Flight Units, letting Moscow mix civilian operator certificates with military lift. State aircraft typically stage through Russia's Khmeimim air base in Syria and Libya's Al-Khadim airfield before continuing south, while private carriers favor commercial hubs in the UAE, Algeria and Türkiye. Africa Corps replaced much of Wagner's role in Africa after the group's 2023…
Russia Replaced Wagner. The Violence Didn’t Stop
Russia changed the name of its military presence in Mali. It changed the command structure. What it has not clearly changed is the pattern of violence that followed Wagner into the Sahel.The latest allegation concerns Kyrnia, a village in Mali's central Mopti region. Eight civilians, including three children, were reported killed in Russian-linked air strikes there on June 15. Investigators cited by Reuters said the strikes hit the village chief's home and a cattle market and that no militants were identified among those killed. The Associated Press reported the same findings and said Russia's Defence Ministry did not comment. The attribution remains an allegation rather than an independently verified finding.But the incident matters because of what Russia has changed around it.Wagner Left. Moscow Took More ControlWagner formally withdrew from Mali in June 2025 and was replaced by Africa Corps, a force operating under much closer Russian state control. ACLED's Africa…
Russia Opens New Mali Supply Route
The reported journey of the sanctioned Russian cargo ship Mikhail Britnev from Arkhangelsk via Baltiysk to Lomé, followed by an overland military-equipment convoy through Togo and Burkina Faso to Bamako in July 2026. The previous Conakry–Bamako corridor is shown for comparison; routes are schematic where exact tracking was unavailable. Illustration: Conflict Alert.A sanctioned Russian cargo vessel has delivered armored vehicles to Mali through Togo, demonstrating an alternative supply corridor for Moscow's Africa Corps as Russian-backed forces face mounting pressure across the Sahel.The Mikhail Britnev sailed from northern Russia, stopped at Baltiysk and reached Lomé on July 9 under escort from the Russian landing ship Aleksandr Shabalin, according to The Insider and regional reporting. Its cargo was subsequently transported roughly 1,800 kilometres through Togo and Burkina Faso toward Bamako — a longer corridor whose Burkina Faso leg is exposed to the expanding regional threat from JNIM. Reports that Guinea refused the…
U.S. Weighs Military Action in Mali
The Trump administration is considering direct military action in Mali against al-Qaeda affiliate JNIM, The Washington Post reported on July 22, citing current and former U.S. officials. Officials are reportedly divided; no strike order has been announced. A former official said one administration objective last year was securing overflight rights for U.S. surveillance aircraft. The Pentagon declined comment.Potential U.S. action comes as Mali’s military government faces reversals after replacing French and United Nations security partnerships with Russia. The Russian Defence Ministry-controlled Africa Corps supports Malian forces and secures strategic routes and urban centres, giving Moscow substantial leverage, but not a total control.Africa Corps acknowledged withdrawing with Malian troops from Kidal in April after coordinated attacks by JNIM and the Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front. The Associated Press reported a July 18 ambush on the Anefis–Gao route against a convoy that the attackers said included Malian and Africa Corps personnel; casualty claims…
Moscow Blames Ukraine as Mali Allies Falter
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko has accused Ukrainian military personnel of creating a “second front” against Russia in Africa, naming Mali and Libya.Borisenko told TASS that Ukrainians were training Islamist fighters in Mali to use drones and alleged that Ukrainian instructors helped attack the Russian tanker Arktik Metagaz off Libya in March. He presented no publicly verifiable evidence. Kommersant carried the allegations on July 17.Kyiv has not acknowledged deploying personnel to either country. The closest it came was after the July 2024 battle of Tinzaouaten, where Tuareg rebels inflicted Wagner’s heaviest single defeat in Africa. Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andriy Yusov said the rebels had received “necessary information,” but did not confirm direct Ukrainian involvement. Ukraine later denied supplying drones, while the rebels said they had received no foreign assistance.What is confirmed is the deterioration of Russia’s security position in Mali. The Tuareg-led Azawad Liberation Front and al-Qaeda-linked JNIM…
The Sahel in Mid-2026: One Conflict Across Many Fronts
The Sahel's security crisis is no longer defined by separate insurgencies in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Militant groups now operate across a single interconnected theater, exploiting weak state control, a fractured regional bloc and a Russian security partnership too limited to fill the vacuum left by departing international forces. Violence is also reaching the seats of state authority themselves – from the blockade around Bamako to repeated attacks on Niamey's international airport – while steadily pushing south toward the Gulf of Guinea.A Confederation Without a Front LineMali, Burkina Faso and Niger have moved well beyond their 2023 mutual-defense pact, the Charter of Liptako-Gourma. In July 2024, they transformed it into the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) while retaining the French-derived acronym, and completed their withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025. The bloc has prioritized military sovereignty and deeper security ties with Russia over Western partnerships. Armed groups routinely operate…
