Escalation Watch
Kremlin Expands Global Influence Network
The Kremlin is expanding an established global influence network by training foreign journalists, supporting state-backed media programmes and investing in digital tools designed to spread Russian narratives abroad, according to assessments by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and European counter-disinformation institutions. Russia's influence infrastructure has moved beyond traditional state broadcasting. A SputnikPro internship session held in Moscow in July 2026 drew young journalists from sub-Saharan Africa, run jointly with Rossotrudnichestvo's "New Generation" project, Russia's state agency for cultural and humanitarian cooperation abroad. RT Academy runs a parallel track, training journalists from ASEAN, South Asian and African countries with Rossotrudnichestvo's support. The programmes aim to cultivate local voices that can distribute Kremlin-aligned narratives even where Russian state media face formal restrictions. European governments have moved to counter that expansion. On July 29, 2026, the French Interior Ministry issued an expulsion order against Xenia Fedorova, former head of RT…
Yemen Edges Toward Renewed War
UN Special Envoy Hans Grundberg warned the Security Council on August 13 that Yemen faces its most serious risk of returning to large-scale conflict since the 2022 truce, citing intensified military activity along frontlines and recent Houthi attacks in Ma'rib, Hadramawt and Mocha, according to Reuters. He also warned that renewed Houthi attacks on Red Sea and Gulf of Aden shipping risk pulling Yemen further into the regional confrontation already straining the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthi-run Saba news agency said on August 13 that the group had launched two drones at a Saudi Aramco refinery in Jazan, the second such strike in less than a week, according to Bloomberg. A Houthi military source called it retaliation for alleged Saudi airspace violations over Saada and Hajjah. Saudi authorities had not confirmed the strike at the time of reporting. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told the council that more than half…
South Korea’s Lee Calls for Permanent Peace With North Korea
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung used his Liberation Day address at Seoul's Sejong Center for the Performing Arts on Saturday to call for talks aimed at formally ending the Korean War and replacing the 1953 armistice with a permanent peace regime, while reaffirming Seoul's commitment to deterrence against North Korea. "Let us put down our intentions to threaten each other and begin discussions to end the long-running war as the directly involved parties," Lee said, marking the 81st anniversary of Korea's liberation from Japanese colonial rule. He said the talks should also explore "effective measures" to halt North Korea's advancing nuclear program, although he did not specify which governments would participate. Because South Korea never signed the 1953 Armistice Agreement, any legally binding peace treaty would almost certainly require the participation of the United States and China alongside the two Koreas. While Lee referred only to "the directly involved…
US Ramps Up Economic and Naval Pressure on Iran
The United States is expanding pressure on Iran through a combined economic and military strategy as hopes for an immediate reduction in tensions fade. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington would soon announce economic measures against Tehran that he said "have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country," in an interview on Newsmax's "Rob Schmitt Tonight" on August 13, according to Reuters. The comments followed President Donald Trump's renewed push in recent days for economic pressure over military escalation, telling Axios over the weekend he was "low-keying it" with Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth separately said the naval blockade of Iranian ports could continue indefinitely through ship rotations, telling reporters in Panama following the PANAMAX exercises, according to Reuters. Iran has signaled it is prepared to match that timeline: a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser said on August 12 that Tehran is ready to…
NATO Fighters Shoot Down Drone After Latvian Airspace Incursion
Latvia declared an airspace threat before dawn on Friday after a foreign drone entered its territory over the Balvi region in the country's northeast, prompting NATO fighters to scramble and shoot the aircraft down within roughly an hour. The incident is the latest in a series of drone incursions that has tested the alliance's Baltic air defenses since a Ukrainian drone struck an oil facility near Rēzekne in May, prompting a major review of Latvia's air-defense posture, and it comes days after monitoring groups reported a sharp rise in Russian jamming activity across the Baltic Sea. According to Latvia's National Armed Forces (NBS), the drone entered Latvian airspace in the Balvi region in the early hours of Friday, triggering an orange alert shortly before 04:00 across Augšdaugava, Preiļi, Rēzekne, Balvi and Alūksne municipalities, with cell-broadcast warnings sent to residents in the affected areas. NBS confirmed roughly an hour later that…
Putin Threatens Vessel Seizures as Black Sea War Escalates
Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened retaliation against European shipping if Russian-linked vessels are seized, escalating a maritime confrontation that now connects sanctions enforcement, commercial shipping and military operations in the Black Sea. Putin made the remarks while visiting a Russian warship during Pacific Fleet exercises near Sakhalin Island on August 12, then travelled to Iturup in the disputed Kuril Islands on August 13, according to AP and the Financial Times. The Iturup visit, which Japan condemned as unacceptable, reinforced Moscow's message of military strength and territorial defiance. Putin's warning came as European states expanded efforts against Russia's shadow fleet, the network of vessels used to move sanctioned Russian oil through opaque ownership structures and flags of convenience. He described possible seizures of Russian vessels as "piracy" and said Moscow could respond beyond the waters where Russian ships were targeted, according to AP and Reuters. The threat surfaced against a…
