Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas has warned that Russia may seek a new escalation against the Baltic states or Poland, framing the threat as a direct consequence of Moscow’s failure to win in Ukraine.
“The Kremlin, Putin, needs a new escalation, some kind of new win,” Kaunas told Lithuania’s LRT on Monday, naming the Baltic region and Poland as the nearest targets. With the war stalled — he cited explosions inside Russia, fuel shortages and growing domestic questions about the promised victory — he argued Putin needs a success elsewhere.
His warning followed President Gitanas Nausėda’s confirmation that intelligence assessments point to possible Russian attacks on regional energy or transport infrastructure, by conventional or hybrid means. Lithuania’s military chief, General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, said no conventional threat was currently visible, but military provocations could not be excluded.
The Kremlin has rejected the warnings as “scare stories.” Such denials carry limited weight against repeated threats from Russian officials and state-television figures, and against Moscow’s record before the invasion of Ukraine. On January 28, 2022, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia did not want war; Russian forces invaded on February 24. That record does not prove an attack is imminent, but it sharply reduces the credibility of Moscow’s assurances.
