North Korea launched what South Korean and Japanese authorities assessed as ballistic missiles from Wonsan on August 6 and 12 without publicly disclosing either launch, a rare departure from its normal practice, according to a joint AEI-Institute for the Study of War update. South Korean and Japanese authorities said the August 12 missile flew roughly 690-700 kilometers and reached an unusually high apogee of about 90 kilometers, compared with the 50-60 kilometer apogee typical of the North’s short-range ballistic missiles. The trajectory falls within an altitude range that analysts assess could complicate existing missile-defense planning, sitting above the typical engagement envelope of South Korea’s L-SAM system while below the higher-altitude range associated with THAAD interception.
The tests coincided with the US-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise and followed Japan’s first Tomahawk missile test on July 29, both of which Pyongyang has criticized. Washington and Seoul are also offering different estimates of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal: Trump said on August 19 that Kim Jong Un possesses “57 very powerful” nuclear weapons, while South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back told lawmakers the next day that outside researchers generally estimate 80 to 120 warheads, cautioning that “it is considerably limited to state an exact number.” Ahn’s ministry said the figures came from private research organizations rather than South Korea’s own intelligence.
North Korea’s missile advances are unfolding alongside deepening military-technical cooperation with Russia. Ukrainian intelligence sources cited by Kyodo News assessed that North Korean missile systems may have benefited from Russian feedback based on battlefield use in Ukraine, and that Russia agreed in July to help build a North Korean refinery capable of producing 300,000 tons of fuel annually in exchange for 25,000 tons of North Korean petroleum products each year. Neither claim has been independently confirmed by Pyongyang or Moscow, and neither government has publicly acknowledged the reported arrangements.
