Situational Report
Britain Bans Iran’s IRGC Under New Law
Britain has classified Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a state threat organization, commonly described as proscription, making it a criminal offense to belong to the group, attend its meetings, or carry its logo in public.The designation uses the National Security (State Threats) Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on July 8, according to GOV.UK. The law exists because standard terrorism proscription does not fit a foreign state's military organ. Independent reviewer Jonathan Hall KC found in a May 2025 report that "terrorism proscription charges would not be appropriate" for bodies like the IRGC and recommended a parallel power instead, according to the UK Parliament Hansard record. Supporting or benefiting from a designated body carries up to 14 years in prison, per the House of Commons Library.Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the powers would make it easier to prosecute anyone in Britain carrying out the IRGC's work, according to Al-Monitor. The…
Iran Ceasefire Unravels as Grid Losses Mount
The US-Iran ceasefire that took hold in June is collapsing, with Iranian strikes on Gulf states and mounting damage to Iran's power grid marking the most serious escalation since the truce began.The US and Iran signed the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding on June 17, establishing a 60-day framework to negotiate a permanent end to the war, according to ABC News. President Trump declared the ceasefire "over" on July 8 after a second consecutive night of US strikes, per ABC News. Iran retaliated by striking US-aligned states across the Gulf, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan, with explosions reported in Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and on Qeshm Island into the early hours of July 13, according to Al Jazeera. ABC News described the pattern as one in which Iran strikes shipping, the US retaliates, and Iran then strikes US allies in the Gulf.US Central Command says its strikes have targeted military sites,…
Oman Proposes a Legal Route to Reopen Hormuz
Oman has drafted a plan to split shipping through the Strait of Hormuz into two corridors, an attempt to break the deadlock over one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints. Under the proposal, reported by CNN, vessels taking a southern route through Omani waters would sail freely under pre-war rules, while those using a northern route through Iranian waters would need Tehran's approval but pay no fees.The plan may favour the West more than it first appears. Because the strait's main shipping lanes run largely through Omani waters, Muscat can open the southern route on its own authority. Channelling commercial fleets there gives shipowners a lane protected by international law — and a way around the transit fees of $1–2 million per vessel that Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority has tried to impose, without a direct naval fight.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi brought the plan to Muscat on…
Iran’s Missiles Turn the Gulf Against It
The United States has struck more than 300 Iranian military targets over three nights — radar, launchers, and missile and drone stores — according to CENTCOM, after Iran hit a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's strikes have now reached across the Gulf, and its neighbours are turning on it.Kuwait reported a "hostile, criminal attack" on three northern border posts and a drone strike on an offshore oil platform that hurt one worker, Arab News reported. Qatar said shrapnel from intercepted Iranian fire wounded three people, including a child. Jordan and the UAE reported no casualties.The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) condemned the attacks on its members and Jordan, with Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi calling them a grave violation of international law, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. Qatar and Oman signing on mattered most: both have long been Tehran's quiet channels to the West. Egypt joined too, its foreign minister pressing Qatar…
Germany Funds 50,000 Ukrainian FPV Strike Drones
Germany is financing the procurement of 50,000 Ukrainian-made Shrike strike drones under a €90 million order, according to Reuters, joining a broader Western shift toward funding weapons produced directly by Ukraine’s defence industry.The contract combines airframes mass-produced by Ukrainian manufacturer SkyFall with guidance software from U.S. defence-technology company Auterion.Germany is not pioneering the model. Denmark launched direct foreign financing of Ukrainian defence production in 2024 under what became known as the “Danish model,” initially funding Bohdana artillery systems before expanding support to drones and missiles. Denmark, Sweden, Iceland and proceeds from frozen Russian assets together financed about €538 million in Ukrainian-made weapons that year.The German order also follows the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara, where European Allies and Canada pledged €70 billion in military support for Ukraine in 2026.The pattern is coming into focus. Western governments are no longer just drawing on their own arsenals to arm Ukraine; they…
Russia’s Long-Range Strike Campaign Is Becoming a War of Industrial Attrition
More than four years into Russia's full-scale invasion, the struggle for control of Ukraine's skies has become one of the defining contests of the war. Moscow is no longer seeking decisive effects from individual missile barrages. Instead, it is using sustained waves of drones and missiles to wear down Ukraine's air defenses, exhaust Western interceptor production and force Kyiv into a prolonged war of industrial attrition.The campaign's scale illustrates that shift. Russia launched a record 8,150 long-range drones against Ukraine in May, according to an AFP analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data. That represented a 24 percent increase from April and reflected Moscow's growing ability to sustain high-tempo attacks over consecutive months. Ukrainian authorities reported intercepting 7,476 of those drones – 91.7 percent of the total – but the headline figure conceals an increasingly important reality: Russia is no longer trying simply to penetrate Ukrainian air defenses. It is trying…
