Situational Report
Ukraine Turned the Sea of Azov Into Russia’s Economic Front
The Sea of Azov is no longer a secure Russian rear area – and for the first time since Moscow seized control of its coastline, the disruption is hitting Russia's export economy as well as its military logistics.Over nine days ending July 14, Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces said their sea and aerial drones struck 116 Russian-linked vessels operating in the Sea of Azov, most of them fuel tankers supplying occupied Crimea. Commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi said the campaign unfolded in stages, with the total rising from 90 vessels on July 12 to 105 a day later before reaching 116 by the end of what Kyiv described as the first phase of the operation. Ukraine's figures have not been independently verified, but Russian regional officials have acknowledged repeated drone attacks on ports and waterways in the Rostov region, while commercial traffic through the Sea of Azov appears to have fallen sharply.According…
Libya’s Rival Military Chiefs Hold First Home-Soil Talks
Libya's rival military chiefs have met on Libyan soil for the first time, holding direct talks in Sirte on July 12 on reunifying armed forces divided between the country's eastern and western power centres.Eastern chief of staff Khaled Haftar and his western counterpart Salah al-Din al-Namroush were joined by members of the UN-backed 5+5 Joint Military Commission, the 3+3 security committee and UNSMIL deputy political chief Stephanie Koury, according to statements from both commands.The talks produced one concrete outcome: an agreement to hold a joint field exercise in southern Libya, where the forces would patrol smuggling and migration routes along the borders with Chad and Niger, The National reported.The meeting comes amid a US-driven effort led by Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump's adviser for Arab and African affairs. The "Boulos initiative" links efforts to attract American oil investment with institutional unity, according to The National, built around a power-sharing formula…
Trump Presses Netanyahu as Doctrines Collide
President Trump's call urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to withdraw forces from Syria and Lebanon reads less like a request than a rebuke, exposing a strategy Israel seems intent on locking in place, according to Axios.Netanyahu's insistence on "security zones" is not merely defensive. With elections three months away and his political survival at stake, holding territory abroad doubles as political cover at home, letting him claim security gains rather than negotiate withdrawals that his coalition would treat as capitulation.That entrenchment now collides with Washington's broader project. Trump's meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Turkey signals a bet on fast-tracked normalization to pull Damascus from Iran's orbit. The IDF's continued presence in southern Syria is a direct obstacle to that timeline, exposing a clash between Trump's deal-driven realignment and Netanyahu's tactical territorialism, where occupied ground grows more valuable the longer it's held.The Rome talks over Lebanon's "pilot zones" show a…
Japan Builds First Postwar Intelligence Agency
Japan is building its first centralized intelligence agency since World War II, launching a National Intelligence Bureau this summer with roughly 700 staff under a council chaired by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, according to The New York Times.That structural phase, passed by the Diet in May, is the easier half of the reform. A more contentious anti-espionage law is planned for later in 2026, and critics say oversight of the new bodies by the Diet and independent third parties remains insufficient, according to the Royal United Services Institute.Russia's use of Japan to evade sanctions has been the immediate catalyst, but China is the deeper pressure behind the reform. Japan's National Police Agency has linked the China-based hacking group MirrorFace to more than 200 cyber incidents against the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, and JAXA, according to Infosecurity Magazine.Takaichi has also lifted restrictions on weapons exports, advanced Japan's…
The Sahel in Mid-2026: One Conflict Across Many Fronts
The Sahel's security crisis is no longer defined by separate insurgencies in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Militant groups now operate across a single interconnected theater, exploiting weak state control, a fractured regional bloc and a Russian security partnership too limited to fill the vacuum left by departing international forces. Violence is also reaching the seats of state authority themselves – from the blockade around Bamako to repeated attacks on Niamey's international airport – while steadily pushing south toward the Gulf of Guinea.A Confederation Without a Front LineMali, Burkina Faso and Niger have moved well beyond their 2023 mutual-defense pact, the Charter of Liptako-Gourma. In July 2024, they transformed it into the Confederation of Sahel States (AES) while retaining the French-derived acronym, and completed their withdrawal from ECOWAS in January 2025. The bloc has prioritized military sovereignty and deeper security ties with Russia over Western partnerships. Armed groups routinely operate…
US Restarts War Powers Clock on Iran
July 13 showed how far the terms of the US-Iran war have moved since fighting began in February, on three fronts at once: the legal basis for continuing it, the rhetoric justifying it, and the technology used to wage it.The Trump administration formally notified Congress on July 10 that "military action" against Iran had resumed on July 7, according to a letter obtained by CBS News. The notification opens a new 60-day window before congressional authorization is legally required, per Roll Call. Democrats dispute that the clock can be restarted this way, arguing the war has continued uninterrupted since February 28, according to Roll Call.That same day, the administration reversed itself on tolls. Trump announced a 20 percent charge on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, months after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he did not care whether such a charge was "called a fee or a toll or…
