Poland and the Baltic states are tightening security around critical infrastructure after intelligence assessments warned that Russia could attempt a false-flag attack using captured Ukrainian drones, according to a Reuters report. “We are not naive, we see the information, we read between the lines and we are doing our homework,” Lithuanian Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas told Reuters, in a report based on interviews with officials in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, as well as regional intelligence and infrastructure representatives.
Lithuania has deployed military personnel to guard several strategic sites, including the Klaipėda liquefied natural gas terminal, an oil products terminal, the LitPol Link electricity interconnector with Poland and the Kruonis Pumped Storage Hydroelectric Plant. In Latvia, Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said security has been strengthened around the Daugava River dam near Riga and the Inčukalns underground gas storage facility as governments across the region reassess the vulnerability of critical infrastructure.
Poland has also increased vigilance. Energy company Orlen, which imports roughly 80% of the country’s gas through the Świnoujście LNG terminal and the Baltic Pipe connection to Norway, is reviewing alternative import routes in the event of disruption, while pipeline operator Gaz-System said it is operating under heightened security procedures. Polskie Elektrownie Jądrowe, the company leading Poland’s first nuclear power project, said forged documents intended to confuse stakeholders had recently appeared online and were traced to sources “east of Poland.” The company said it is investigating the incident with law enforcement authorities.
The concern is rooted in recent drone incidents that have already complicated attribution. Following Ukraine’s long-range strikes against the Russian oil terminals at Ust-Luga and Primorsk earlier this year, stray or diverted drones entered Lithuanian airspace on March 23 and crossed into Latvia and Estonia two days later. On May 7, a drone believed to have strayed into Latvian territory after operations targeting Russia exploded at an oil facility in Rēzekne, prompting the resignation of then-Prime Minister Evika Siliņa and Defence Minister Andris Sprūds. Moscow has since accused the Baltic states of allowing Ukraine to launch attacks from their territory, allegations rejected by both Latvian and Ukrainian officials as disinformation.
Officials fear a genuine false-flag operation using captured Ukrainian drones could initially resemble another stray cross-border incident, delaying attribution during the critical early hours of a crisis and potentially complicating NATO’s political response. While officials stressed there is no indication such an attack is imminent, Poland’s defence minister warned last month that Russia’s stockpile of captured Ukrainian drones could eventually be turned against NATO territory. Russia has denied conducting hybrid operations against NATO members.
The measures reflect a broader shift in security planning along NATO’s eastern flank, where governments increasingly view hybrid attacks against critical infrastructure – including sabotage, cyber operations, disinformation and false-flag operations – as a more immediate challenge than a conventional military assault.
