Between 2,000 and 5,000 metric tonnes of natural uranium may have left the Democratic Republic of Congo inside cobalt-hydroxide exports between 2000 and 2024, according to a peer-reviewed study published in Nature Communications by Princeton and University of Wisconsin-Madison researchers. That quantity could fuel a light-water reactor for 10 to 25 years, or, if enriched, yield fissile material for roughly 600 to 1,500 nuclear weapons, co-author Sébastien Philippe said. The study does not claim deliberate smuggling or weapons diversion.
Researchers estimate that around 65% of the affected shipments, and therefore much of the embedded uranium, went to Chinese-owned companies. China is home to about 95% of the world’s cobalt refineries. Uranium must be removed when cobalt hydroxide is refined into metal, creating a potentially valuable byproduct that researchers say has largely gone undeclared to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and remained outside international safeguards.Less than 10% was declared, and researchers estimate Chinese imports may have exceeded reporting thresholds under China’s IAEA Additional Protocol every year since 2010, according to the Financial Times.
Researchers also estimate that 1,000 to 4,000 tonnes entered mine tailings in chemically mobile form, posing environmental and occupational-health risks to miners and nearby communities.
