Analysis
The U.S. and Iran Are Fighting a War Neither Can Finish
Five months into the U.S.-Iran war, both sides retain the ability to inflict serious damage, but neither has translated that power into a decisive political result. The United States can strike Iranian military infrastructure at scale. Iran can retaliate against American forces, regional partners and commercial routes. Yet the conflict repeatedly returns to the same unstable position: bombardment, retaliation, temporary pauses and renewed negotiations that fail to settle the central disputes.The conflict increasingly exhibits the characteristics of an attritional contest. Rather than seeking a single decisive campaign, both governments appear to be engaged in a prolonged effort to impose military, economic and political costs while preserving enough capability to continue fighting if diplomacy fails. The result is a war measured less by territory gained than by resilience, industrial capacity and political endurance.Calling it attrition does not mean the two sides possess equal capabilities. They do not. It means that overwhelming…
Yemen War Closes Second Key Oil Route
For months, global oil markets have fixated on the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf that carried roughly 15 million barrels a day before the US and Iran resumed fighting this year. Now a second artery is closing. The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, the gateway between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean that shipping had been using to route around Hormuz, is itself under attack — and a third, older threat, Somali piracy, is exploiting the resulting security vacuum.How the Houthis Reopened a Second FrontThe immediate trigger was a Houthi decision to abandon a 2022 truce with Saudi Arabia. According to Reuters, Iran instructed the Houthis to close the Red Sea gateway if the US struck its power grid; an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps delegation reportedly flew to Houthi-held Yemen on July 13 with military cargo. Within weeks, the Houthis were attacking Saudi Aramco infrastructure…
Ceuta Crisis Fits Russia’s Migration-Warfare Playbook
For a few hours on the Moroccan coast, a border simply stopped existing. As many as 60,000 people crossed by land and sea into Spanish territory, and by the time anyone in Madrid or Brussels had finished convening emergency calls, the crisis's political effects were already spreading across Europe.Ceuta's government estimated that approximately 60,000 people entered within 24 hours, equivalent to about 70% of the city's population, while Spain's Interior Ministry put the number closer to 50,000. At least 57 people died from drowning, crushing and other causes during the disorder. Madrid said 48,300 had returned to Morocco by Friday evening, many voluntarily after finding Ceuta unable to provide accommodation, food or onward passage, according to the Associated Press. Italy temporarily restored passport controls for air and sea travel from Spain, France strengthened checks on its Spanish border, and Austria considered further restrictions – all inside the Schengen Area, Europe's…
Russia Replaced Wagner. The Violence Didn’t Stop
Russia changed the name of its military presence in Mali. It changed the command structure. What it has not clearly changed is the pattern of violence that followed Wagner into the Sahel.The latest allegation concerns Kyrnia, a village in Mali's central Mopti region. Eight civilians, including three children, were reported killed in Russian-linked air strikes there on June 15. Investigators cited by Reuters said the strikes hit the village chief's home and a cattle market and that no militants were identified among those killed. The Associated Press reported the same findings and said Russia's Defence Ministry did not comment. The attribution remains an allegation rather than an independently verified finding.But the incident matters because of what Russia has changed around it.Wagner Left. Moscow Took More ControlWagner formally withdrew from Mali in June 2025 and was replaced by Africa Corps, a force operating under much closer Russian state control. ACLED's Africa…
Farnborough 2026: Drones Enter the Aviation Mainstream
Farnborough International Airshow 2026 may be remembered less for any single aircraft order than for the moment uncrewed systems stopped looking like a specialist annex to aviation. Across the exhibition halls, drones appeared as interceptors, bombers, logistics aircraft, weapons carriers and autonomous partners for crewed fighters.This was not the disappearance of piloted flight. It was the normalization of mixed fleets in which crewed aircraft provide command, sensors and complex decision-making while uncrewed systems add range, mass and acceptable risk. The same week made clear, however, that "mixed fleet" means different things depending on whether the crewed half of the equation is working.Commercial Aircraft Still Paid the BillsTraditional aerospace business remained enormous. Britain's ADS Group calculated that £62.9 billion in business was announced during the four trade days, including 353 firm aircraft orders, 904 engines and 10 helicopters. The largest transaction came from SMBC Aviation Capital, which ordered 100 Airbus A320neo-family…
Chinese MANPADS Could Complicate America’s Iran Air War
Iran may be weeks away from receiving hundreds of Chinese-made shoulder-fired air-defense systems, giving Tehran a weapon unlikely to reverse U.S. dominance in the air but potentially capable of making some of the most dangerous American missions even harder. There is already a combat case suggesting the risk is not theoretical.The Deal and the HardwareIran has agreed to purchase between 300 and 400 man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS, including Chinese QW-12 and FN-16 missiles, according to Reuters. Three sources familiar with the deal said the $60-70 million contract has been signed and that an initial shipment could arrive within weeks. China called the report "completely groundless," while Pakistan denied any role in transiting the weapons. Reuters cautioned that quantities and delivery schedules could still change.The two missiles are not identical. The FN-16 is reported to use a dual infrared and ultraviolet seeker intended to improve resistance to defensive countermeasures such…
